Water

Market Commentary 22nd May 2018

  • The rain was unable to penetrate the great dividing range this week and most of the MDB saw nothing recorded in the gauge. In the southern regions we’re looking at a dry week, but things are starting to look up from next week onwards – well thats what the 28 day forecast is indicating!
  • The BOM have released their latest Climate Outlook for the June to August period. No change from the previous one with median rainfall and slightly warmer temperatures predicted.
  • At least one model is indicating El Nino conditions will return later in the year. JAMSTEC is predicting a very warm eastern Pacific ocean from December and that “…Australia…will be drier than normal, as well. The drier condition in Indonesia and Australia may be due to the expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.” Something to keep an eye on in the coming months.
  • We have updated our recent post regarding 2018-19 water availability. Carryover is set to play an important part in next seasons water market, especially for early season supply.
  • All is relatively quiet in the allocation market with prices hovering around $150/ML with relatively small volumes being traded.
  • Just how much will it cost the Government to recoup the additional 450GL? A lot more than the $1.5B remaining in the budget according to an article in The Weekly Times.
  • The Goulburn IVT has 24.0GL of capacity for allocation to move into the Murray system.
  • The Barmah Choke is open with 47.3GL of allocation able to be traded downstream.
  • Trade into the Murrumbidgee remains closed with the IVT at -17.6GL.

As at 22nd May 2018, H2OX has the following water products available;

Forwards $/ML
Victoria
Goulburn $185
Murray $190
NSW
Murray $190
Murrumbidgee $230
Carryover $/ML
Victoria
Low Reliability Call
High Reliability (Spill) Call
NSW
General Security $90

H2OX has a large volume of Lowbidgee Supplementary entitlement for sale which can be accessed between Maude and Redbank weirs.

Allocation markets

Market $/ML Move
Victoria
Goulburn $150 Steady
Murray 6 $150 Steady
Murray 7 $150 Steady
NSW
Murray 10 $150 Steady
Murray 11 $150 Steady
Murrumbidgee $180-190 Steady
SA $150 Steady

Entitlement markets

Market HS/HR GS/LR Move
Victoria
Goulburn $3,400+ $500+ Steady
Murray 6 $3,400+ $500+ Steady
Murray 7 $3,900+ $520+ Steady
NSW
Murray 10 $1500+ Steady
Murray 11 $4200+ $1600+ Steady
Murrumbidgee $4500+ $1900+ Steady
SA $3,400+ N/A Steady