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  • Market Commentary 18th September 2018

    • Seasonal determinations were updated yesterday;
      • Murrumbidgee increased 1% to 7%. If the dry conditions prevail no further increases are expected this season.
      • NSW Murray remains on 0% with transmission losses exceeding storage inflows which were in the lowest 11% for August. If inflows remain the same only 5% determination is forecast by the start of February.
      • Vic Murray increased 7% to 78% with inflows into Hume and Dartmouth tracking slightly better than the dry scenario.
      • Goulburn determinations increased by 14% to 70% with inflows into Eildon running above average since August.
    • The Murrumbidgee IVT is starting to reduce as the price of allocation hits parity with the Murray and some water starts to move out.
    • While several frontal systems passed across the SE, rainfall was minimal and confined to the southern ranges of the MDB (see map below). With the clear sunny days comes frost. BOM put up an animation showing how widespread the frosts were on Saturday night.
    • The coming week isn’t too promising either with fronts being kept well south due to persistent high pressure systems across southern Australia.
    • Streamflow forecasts have been updated by BOM. Low inflows were observed at more than half of the locations during August this is predicted over continue through to November.
    • Seasonal Outlook workshops are being held across northern Victoria.
    • The OECD released a paper titled “Land use and ecosystem services” looking at the policy around ecosystem services in the context of agriculture.
    • The Victorian Water Register is updating 5 frequently used forms including Form 1 and Form 39. New forms were available from 17 September. Old forms can be used until 31 December 2018.
    • ABARES has released their latest crop report with winter crop production expected to be down 12%, the majority of this decrease in the eastern states due to the dry conditions. Surprisingly, the rice crop is only forecast to fall 10% – optimistic given the current water prices.
    • Sunrice shareholders will vote on the proposal to list B-class shares on the ASX at the AGM on Thursday. The deadline for voting is 18 September 2018.
    • The Goulburn IVT is -25.5GL (increasing from -16.7GL due to seasonal determinations) restricting trade into the Murray system.
    • The Barmah Choke remains open with 40.7GL (increasing from 38.6GL last week) of allocation able to be traded downstream.
    • Trade into the Murrumbidgee remains closed with the IVT at -7.0GL (decreasing from -8.6GL last week). This needs to reach +15GL before trade into the Murrumbidgee is allowed.
    • Allocation markets

      Market $/ML Move from
      last week
      Goulburn $320+ Up
      Murray 6 $340+ Up
      Murray 7 $340+ Up
      Murray 10 $340+ Up
      Murray 11 $340+ Up
      Murrumbidgee $340+ Steady
      SA $340+ Up

      Entitlement markets

      Market HR/HS GS/LR
      Goulburn $3,450 $500
      Murray 6 $3,700+ $550
      Murray 7 $4,500+ $550
      Murray 10 $1,850+
      Murray 11 $4,900 $1,850+
      Murrumbidgee $5,100 $2,100
      SA $3,950