Water


 

 

Market Commentary 30th October 2018
  • There was no rainfall in the southern basin last week and a warm week with maximums in the high 30’s predicted across Sunraysia and Riverina saw allocation prices rise $5-10/ML at the end of last week. The supply squeeze is also compounding the price increases.
  • Seasonal determinations will be updated on Thursday. Its unlikely there will be any surprises in these announcements; dry conditions, lower than average inflows and dry outlook (see below) will equate to minimal increases in Victoria and no change in southern NSW catchments.
  • The BOM released their seasonal outlook for the November to January period last Thursday. November is predicted to be particularly dry. The prevailing positive IOD is expected to return to neutral over the coming month. The recent ENSO outlooks has all but 2 models showing the NINO3.4 anomaly crossing the El Nino threshold.
  • The volume of water which can be traded through the Barmah Choke is increasing, highlighting the volume traded upstream due to general security determinations remaining on 0% in NSW Murray.
  • David Littleproud has extended the public consultation on the socio economic neutrality test until 23 November after complaints from communities. This location of public meetings can be found on their web site where submissions can also be made.
  • This was the result of many complaints regarding both the short notice and lack of information on where the meetings were being held. Despite this, many people turned out to the first few meetings in Swan Hill & Kerang last week.
  • The CY19 rice crop is being estimated at less than 100,000 (sic) tonnes according to the Deniliquin Pastoral Times driven by the 0% determinations in NSW Murray and high allocation prices.
  • That same article has also resulted in plenty of discussion around water availability and seasonal determinations.
  • Jemalong Irrigation has released a rural youth scholarship program.
  • The lack of grain is having an impact of a wide range of agricultural enterprises according to an article by ABC Rural.
  • The CEWH was accused of triggering trade restrictions by moving their water between accounts at the ABARES regional outlook conference in Shepparton. The CEWH, just like any other market participant, is rightfully entitled to transfer water between their accounts if the opportunity arises.
  • The Goulburn IVT is just -1,461ML restricting trade into the Murray system. The IVT will continue to open and shut over the coming weeks. See more information below.
  • The Barmah Choke remains open with 60.4GL (increasing from 58.7GL last week) of allocation able to be traded downstream.
  • Trade into the Murrumbidgee remains closed with the IVT at -0.5GL (up from -2.7GL last week). This needs to reach +15GL before trade into the Murrumbidgee is allowed.
Entitlement
Market
System High General/Low
Goulburn $3,900 $500+
Murray 6 $4,200 $600+
Murray 7 $4,900 $600+
NSW Murray 10 $1,800
NSW Murray 11 $5,300 $1,800
Murrumbidgee $5,600 $2,200
SA $3,950

For Sale

System Class Volume Asking
Murray 7 HR 5.3ML $4,500
Murray 7 HR 20.0ML
Murray 7 HR 25.0ML
Goulburn HR 20.0ML $4,100 dry
Murray LR ~120.0ML
Murray HR ~260.0ML
Murrumbidgee HS 150.0ML $6,200 wet
Billabong Creek (M’Bidgee) Supp 400.0+ML $850
Buy Offers
System Class Volume Offer
Murray 7 HR ~50.0ML $4,700 wet
Goulburn 1A HR 100.0ML $3,900 wet
Goulburn 1A HR ~2.0ML $3,300 wet
H2OX charges an exchange fee of 0.825% (minimum $750) for entitlement transactions. Buyer pays the relevant water authority fees.
Allocation
Market
Market $/ML Movement
Goulburn $360 Up
Murray 6 $390 Up
Murray 7 $390 Up
NSW Murray 10 $390 Up
NSW Murray 11 $390 Up
Murrumbidgee $390 Steady
SA $390 Up
H2OX listings
System Offer Vol Bid Vol
Goulburn 1A 100.0ML $365.00 300.0ML $360.00
Vic/NSW/SA Murray 100.1ML $390.00 1,000.0ML $385.00
M’Bidgee 100.0ML $390.00